Thursday, November 20, 2008

Sprawl is as American as apple pie. I love pie. But I hate sprawl.

Recently, the County has been trying to wrap up a new Urban Services Area map which hints at where new development and maybe higher densities will go in the future.

Some have argued that the people who come to Pagosa are looking for a lifestyle of 3 to 5 acres -- a sort of semi-rural aesthetic. But consider that other people who prefer walkable communities and higher density have not arrived in Pagosa -- yet -- because there is nothing here for them to arrive to.

We currently do not have a solid example of newer mixed-use development in our community. Under the “I know it when I see it” standard, a mixed-use development is characterized, in part, by people walking around. Walking from the house to the coffee shop. Walking from the house to a store to buy a loaf of bread. Walking from the house to a job.

Right now in our community, every “trip” is done in an automobile. Mixed-use, done well, eliminates the need for some automobile trips because a variety of activities (living, shopping, office) are all mixed together on the same site.

The old downtown commercial core does provide some mixed-use living. Economic stimulus is missing at the moment. A more vibrant downtown would lead to more people walking downtown.

I have argued previously that we have to choose now whether future development is going to lead to sprawl or if we going to commit to density. But for Pagosa Springs, my argument was really not quite on point.

We have already let sprawl happen in Pagosa Springs. Drive from Ace Hardware on the west end of Town all the way to Day Lumber on the east end of Town. That distance is seven miles. Drive from Highway 160 to Hatcher Lake. That distance is five miles.

Too late folks. We already let the “sprawl” genie out of the bag.

Now, let’s get out of our car and walk around a bit. Everywhere. If we look long enough and close enough, here is what we see. Almost every trip to a house, from a house, to a restaurant or to City Market is a vehicle trip. Every trip from Lake Hatcher to a coffee shop or City Market is a five mile vehicle trip also impacting Highway 160. Even downtown, most trips are vehicle trips. Under our current plan (or lack of real plan), when our population doubles again, the number of vehicle trips will also double.

So what is this “small town character” that people say that they want to “keep” for Pagosa Springs? In my dream of a small town, people bump into each other on the street. Some trips are done in the car and some trips are done on your feet. Isn’t that what “Main Street” U.S.A. is supposed to be all about. My dream of small town is not bumper to bumper traffic heading up and down Highway 160 from the east side of town to the west side of town.

Sprawl is as American as apple pie. I love pie. But I hate sprawl.

Does anyone doubt that the population in our community will double again in size sometime in the foreseeable future? You might not like it. You might not want it. But can you stop it?

When I was born in 1962, the world population was about 4 billion people. Now the world population is fast going on 7 billion. I will live to see 8 billion people on the planet. Maybe a whole lot more.

I live in the heart of downtown Pagosa Springs. But given my “lifestyle”, I also head up to the west end of town (currently the commercial center of town) every day. In my truck. At least once per day. That’s a five-plus mile drive from my house in the heart of the downtown to the functional commercial center of town.

Is this the “small town character” and lifestyle people are trying to preserve?

I know that some of the downtown folks never venture up to the west end of town. Some of the Pagosa Lakes folks never venture downtown. What does that tell us about the future of Pagosa Springs? Nothing.

We all live in a one town, small county. We are one unified community. Even if we don’t quite believe it yet.

Eventually, downtown will be restored as the vibrant commercial center of our community. Take a roughly 8 block radius and draw a circle around the downtown core. If we get this downtown core right -- a must see tourist destination and a walkable civic center where locals actually walk -- then the rest of the county will successfully ride on the coattails of this socio-economic heart of the community. (Hat tip to the new Overlook spa and the new Springs hotel.) If we blow it on growing the downtown core properly then we will always have non-descript sprawl, anywhere USA. And, indeed, we will have blown it for the future generations of our community.

We need a heart and soul to this place. Sprawl, by definition, has no heart. Continue to create the heart in the downtown. Then create some satellite mixed-use centers that are also pedestrian in use; not just theory. Then, the best that we can, try to tie the whole thing together along Putt Hill.

I have one single litmus test for all future development in our community. Does it attract new, young families? If new development attracts new families then, by definition, it attracts new jobs.

Second home owning retirees -- we love you. Tourists -- we definitely want you. But new, young families will be the life blood of the future generations of Pagosa Springs.

Which brings me to this new Urban Services Area map that the County Planning Commission has just passed on to the County Commissioners.

For someone as interested in land use planning, you would think that I would have spent a lot of time analyzing the details of the current version of the map. But I haven’t. I’ve got my letter-size piece of paper with a printout of the current draft of the map.

Is it a good map for our community? How many people have actually been involved with the process so far?

There are three things that I really like about this draft USA map. One is that it shows, conclusively, that Archuleta County/Pagosa Springs really is a one town, small unified County. I’m not ignoring Arboles or Chromo. They need their own special community plans. But that does not detract from the fact that we really are a single, unified community.

Here is a County map, showing an oval outline, with the “Town” in the middle and the “County” together as single bubble of people and houses.

The second thing that I really like about the draft USA map is that I trust the people who put it together. I trust the County Planning staff and I trust the County Planning Commission. They put a lot of time and energy into making that map the best that they possibly could.

Is someone going to complain about too much potential density in their back yard? Yes. Is someone going to complain about not enough potential density on their own acreage? Yes. Would I have done some parcels differently? Maybe.

But the point is that the Planning Commission did the best they could to represent all of the thousands of people who did not show up at the meetings. They did their best to represent all of the thousands of people who don’t live here yet but will live here some day. This map is a stand against future sprawl.

Is the map perfect? Maybe not. Is it a very good draft? Definitely. The draft Urban Services Area map is a picture of the future growth of our community and where it should be located. Should growth continue haphazardly all over the place or should growth be limited to inside of the oval bubble?

Pagosa Springs is currently defined by a seven mile stretch of commercial sprawl along Highway 160. And by miles of perpendicular residential growth arms.

The entire City of San Francisco, California sits on land just about seven miles by seven miles square. The Urban Services Area of our “small town” looks to take up as much space as that large city.

To the extent which the Urban Services Area map will establish the idea that we are not expanding this community out any farther into our open space, I applaud it. I hope that this map becomes a “line in the sand” over which future subdivisions will generally not cross.

So, here’s my personal nod of support and appreciation to the work of the County Planning Commission and Planning Staff on the new map.

Friday, October 17, 2008

Patriotism is Born


When the greatness of the Tao is present,
action arises from one's own heart.
When the greatness of the Tao is absent,
action comes from the rules
of "kindness and justice".

If you need rules to be kind and just,
if you act virtuous,
this is a sure sign that virtue is absent,
Thus we see the great hypocrisy.

When kinship falls into discord,
piety and rites of devotion arise.
When the country falls into chaos,
official loyalists will appear;
patriotism is born.


18th Verse of the Tao

Monday, October 13, 2008

The End of the World as We Know It

Will the new economy destroy freedom, democracy and capitalism in the United States? As the federal government intervenes heavily in the financial markets and buys up financial institutions, we are witnessing a fatal collision of “free market capitalism” with “state-run corporate capitalism“.

Economic structures determine political structures. In the classic model of the United States, free market capitalism led to the freedoms of democracy. In fascist Germany of the 1930s, corporations gained control of the economy and, in exchange, supported the political dictatorship of a corporatist Germany.

In her new book, “Give Me Liberty”, Naomi Wolf offers the view that the United States is rapidly becoming a “closed society” and that our constitution is being destroyed before our eyes.

Step one: hyping an external threat that is terrifying.
Step two: creating a secret prison system that is outside the rule of law where torture takes place.
Step three: a paramilitary force not answerable to the people.
Step four: an institutional surveillance apparatus imposed on the citizens.
Step five: infiltrate and harass citizen’s groups.
Step six: engage in arbitrary detention and release.
etc…

Do these steps describe the rise of fascist Germany in the 1930’s or changes currently occurring in the United States? Both.

Germany in 1932 was a parliamentary democracy with political parties, newspapers and human rights organizations. In the 20th century, every rise in dictatorship has followed the same exact “blueprint” for closing down a democracy. They all follow the same ten steps according to Naomi Wolf. Think Hitler, Mussolini, and Stalin. Petty dictators in Latin America, Thailand, Burma have also followed the blueprint. She claims that these same ten steps are under way in the United States right now.

According to Wolf we are now in a crises because the rule of democracy is crumbling and is rapidly being replaced by the foundations for a dictatorship.

“I want to go back to what are the core principles that America is supposed to give us because we are being manipulated and brainwashed so far away from that; with fake democracy and fake patriotism.”

“A coup has taken place. And people need to know how to fight back.” (Naomi Wolf)

I have to say that I do not disagree with Naomi Wolf. The “free marketplace” and the historic structures of capitalism have now been destroyed. This process has actually been slowly accruing since the last Great Depression but has taken an accelerated pace in 2008.

The federal government’s wiretapping of US citizens is clearly a breach of traditional constitutional rights. The US president now claims the power to arrest and torture anyone he deems to be an “enemy combatant”. There are reports of a US Army Division about to be deployed from Iraq to US soil.

If the financial markets are no longer “free” then how will we the people be “free” in any meaningful sense? If fear and false “security” have replaced our constitutional rights then the US constitution is dead. Looking in the rear view mirror, our “American” way life has been left behind, dying on the side of the road.

However, concurrently, we are living in a time of tectonic social and technological upheavals never before witnessed in history. The collapse of the institutions of free market capitalism occurs precisely at a time of emergence of something new.

Steven Johnson published a book called “Emergence” right at the time of the September 11th, 2001 attack. The book was about the power and creative potential of urban density; of connecting people and putting them together in one place and sharing ideas together. Johnson lives in New York City in close proximity to the site of the destroyed Twin Towers.

Johnson was able to observe that in the days immediately following the Twin Towers attack, the streets were vibrantly alive with people. He reports that his neighborhood, the West Village, had never seemed more lively. Despite the enormity of the “terrorist” attack 20 blocks to the south, the City was working and vibrant. The “system” of the City was thriving.

Although cities are centralized in space, they are decentralized in function. They don’t have an executive branch upon which the entire city operations rely. Who builds a City? Who builds a neighborhood? Johnson notes that it is “everybody and nobody”. Everybody contributes a small little part. No single person is in charge.

This is increasingly what we are experiencing with the World Wide Web -- the internet. The internet is a global brain.

We are on the brink of truly global social organization, according to another author Robert Wright. Originally humans developed hunter-gatherer villages. Early agriculture led to chiefdoms of local control. With the invention of writing you started getting cities. Eventually social organization led to empires.

Robert Wright, notes that social organization can extend beyond political boundaries as in, for example, the Silk Road which connected the Chinese empire to the Roman empire. So, you had social complexity spanning an entire continent even though a single political structure did not. Today, we have nation states. This is a growth in social complexity over time.

Social organization has now reached the global level. So…how do we all get along now? Are we heading to a one-world government? Do we have any choice?

Of course, you and I resist the idea of unified, world-wide government the same way the agrarian chiefdoms resisted being merged into nation states, But the natural flow of ten thousand years of history points towards a single global economy and, therefore, a single unified political structure.

Some people will rightfully be concerned about having economic and political power of the entire planet increasingly concentrated into fewer and fewer hands. History is filled with stories about a power elite taking control over the masses. Looking into the rear view mirror of history, further concentration of political power sure seems like a bad idea.

But the future we are heading into may not actually be fully informed by the past.

Clay Shirky writes about the internet and talks about a growing distinction between “institutions” and “collaboration”. The historical, classic way to get something done in the world is to start an institution. You get resources together, you start an institution (either public or private), and you use the institution to coordinate the activities of the group.

But as Shirky points out, most recently the costs of communicating with other people -- of coordinating activity -- has become vastly cheaper. The internet now allows us to communicate and to coordinate activity easily and cheaply without the need for classical institutional structures.

Equally as important, the internet allows the general public to participate and cooperate with projects without becoming hired professionals and without the limitations of traditional institutions. Shirky provides the example of the website Flicker which allows total strangers to provide photos of an event that they have all attended and to have them tagged in such a way that a collection of photos taken by many, “unorganized”, unprofessional photographers can be viewed by anyone on the planet.

Similarly, the lack of “institution” can be observed in today’s use of cell phones which reduces the need for established planning in exchange for something like “I’ll just call you after work and we’ll figure out how to hook up then”. Shirky says that this is a replacement of “planning” with “coordination“. “We are now able to do that kind of thing with groups.” Instead of having a five year plan for the website Wikipedia, we can now just say that we will coordinate the effort as we go. We are now well enough coordinated that we don’t have to decide in advance what to do.

As Shirky notes, “the tension is between institution as enabler and institution as obstacle. Institutions hate being told that they are obstacles. One of the first things that happens when you institutionalize a problem -- the first goal of the institution immediately shifts from whatever the nominal goal was to preservation. So, when institutions are told that they are obstacles and that there are other ways of coordinating the value, they go through something like the Kubler-Ross stages: denial, anger, bargaining, and acceptance.”

A good example is how Microsoft develops operating system hardware and how Linux develops operating system hardware. Microsoft is a closed private institution. Linux is an “open source” collaboration model. The fact that a single programmer can move into a non-professional relationship with Linux, offer one software improvement, and then never be heard from again, is the kind of value that is unreachable in classic institutional systems.

“This is a revolution. This is a really profound change in the way human systems are organized. It is a revolution in that it is a change in equilibrium. It is a whole new way of doing things. As with the printing press, if it is really a revolution, it doesn‘t take us from point A to point B. It takes us from point A to chaos.” The printing press precipitated 200 years of chaos, moving from a world where the Catholic Church was the organizing political force to a new world order in 1648 of the nation state with the Treaty of Westphalia. (Shirky)

Yochai Benkler, a professor of entrepreneurial legal studies, has additional insights into the value of “open source” economics. Benkler notes that in the year 1835, James Gordon Bennett created the first mass circulation newspaper in New York City for a cost of about $10,000. in today’s money. By 15 years later in 1850, doing the same thing would come to cost 2.5 million dollars in today’s dollars. This is the critical change that is being inverted by the internet today -- the emergence of “social production“.

The contrast is that previously, classical producers had to be able to raise substantial money to initiate a new product -- they were market-based or publicly-owned. But with the rise of the internet we have a radical change in the way that information, production, and exchange is capitalized. The way that the capitalization now happens is radically distributed instead of concentrated into a few hands.

What this means is that for the first time since the industrial revolution, the most important components of our information economy are now in the hands of the population at large. Communications and computations capability are now in the hands of the entire population. And human creativity is encouraged. Rather than the institution deciding who gets “hired” and which ideas get promoted, all individuals can promote their own ideas.

The internet server software Apache was created by a loose collection of volunteer writers. Again, the institutionalized competitor was Microsoft. But now the open source Apache software controls 70% of the market and the private institution Microsoft software controls only 20% of the Web server market.

This sort of open source collaborative, cooperative approach to projects on the Web has become a dominant means of getting things done. For example, search engine Google “outsources” to the Web community as a whole to decide which websites are the most relevant which, in turn, directs other people to those so chosen websites.

It used to be too expensive to have decentralized social production out in society. What we are seeing now is the emergence of this economic system of “social sharing and exchange”, according to Benkler.

“A new social phenomenon is emerging. It is creating a new form of competition. Peer to peer networks are assaulting the recording industry. Free/open source software is taking market share from Microsoft. Skype potentially threatens the telecomms. Wikipedia competes with on-line encyclopedias. But it also opens new sources of opportunities for businesses.” (Benkler)

Economic structures determine political structures. New technology is creating tools for a “collaborative” economy in direct competition with the historical, “closed” institutions.

The traditional high cost to enter the market place is being replaced by the internet which makes the tools of communication, coordination and marketing potentially available to anyone.

While the United States political structure is clearly experiencing pressure to become less “democratic” and less “free”, the competing force of “open source”, social production could ultimately lead us towards a more free worldwide economy with possibilities for a revival of true democracy.

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

The Speed of Money

Trying to explain to my 12 year old daughter why the local economy is weak and how money works. Little does she know that most of us adults can’t figure out how it works either.

People are not selling real estate and making commissions any more. People are not building houses and receiving weekly salaries. Since those people don’t have any money or have left town, they don’t buy as many lunches at the deli; they don’t buy a beer down at the brew pub.

The deli workers have less money to spend at the local stores. The brew pub workers don’t have enough money to buy new jackets to ride the mountain this winter.

So, if you follow the trail of a dollar bill throughout Pagosa, it starts to slow down; it doesn’t move from as many hands to the next. The “speed of money” is slowing down in Pagosa.

Less money moving through our hands means we tighten our budgets and our belts. Town Hall has to slow down the number of capital improvement projects it can do. The County can forget about serious road improvements. Just about the only entity on the planet that can live without budgetary limitations is the federal government of the U.S.

The Federal Reserve can just print as many dollars as it needs on any given day. Of course, it is a lot more complicated than that but, then again, it really is that simple.

First confusing piece of trivia: the “Federal Reserve” is not part of the federal government. In 1913 our U.S. government decided to give away the power to “print money” to an elite group of bankers. To make it sound official, the bankers took on the name Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve can print money. The Federal Reserve through the “fractional reserve” system allows banks to lend out their money several times over which creates a “money multiplier” of up to twelve times more money to lend out than the bank actually has.

However, the US government itself can create "money out of thin air” by borrowing money from other countries like China and Saudia Arabia. It works like this. The United States says, “you give me your stuff -- products and oil -- and we will give you green pieces of paper”. Those other countries end up with a whole lot of our green pieces of paper and we get the stuff.

Because the other “trade surplus” countries have so much of our green pieces of paper, they need a safe place to store it. Historically, a very safe way to store US dollars was to buy US Treasury notes. Essentially, the United States says “hey, look at all those green dollar bills. Let us borrow them and we’ll give you interest.”

So actually, we get the products and oil from other countries and they get a “promise” from us to get green pieces of paper “later”…….much later. Although sometimes politicians and economists say trade deficits are bad for our country, most of us have enjoyed getting all the stuff.

We get the stuff and they get a promise for lots of green pieces of paper sometime later. We get well over $1 billion of stuff every day this way.

Now, when the US government needs to actually pay up on a Treasury note, we can create (out of thin air) more green pieces of paper by selling somebody else more Treasury notes. Imagine that you are living off of credit cards and new credit cards keep coming in the mail, allowing you to pay off the old credit cards and even have additional dollars to spend. The only difference between the US government and the individual with credit cards is that, eventually, no one will send the individual any more credit cards.

It used to be that governments had to back up their money with gold bars sitting in a vault. But in 1971, Richard Nixon was able to tell the entire western world that currencies would no longer be backed up by gold. Instead, all western currencies became tied to the US dollar. Little green pieces of paper began to back up world currencies; not gold.

So, you can imagine how attached all the western governments are to making sure that the US dollar does not fail.

Second confusing piece of trivia: inflation. Everybody knows that “inflation” is caused by the cost of goods and services increasing. But that is not what inflation is. Actually, inflation is a “deflating” dollar. If both the Federal Reserve and the US government can “create money out of thin air” then it makes sense that, over time, a dollar bill will be worth less and less and that it will take more dollar bills to buy a bushel of wheat and a barrel of oil than it used to.

On average, a bar of gold will buy the same number of bushels of wheat that it did 2000 years ago. In other words, a bar of gold doesn’t experience inflation. Only a dollar bill (or other paper currency) experiences inflation.

Eventually, all paper currencies become worthless. (No, it is not different this time.)

If the United States borrows 100 billion dollars from Saudia Arabia at a time when a barrel of oil costs $100. and if later the United States pays back Saudia Arabia when a barrel of oil costs $200. then, effectively, the US has borrowed one billion barrels of oil but only has to give back half of what it borrowed. That sounds like a good deal for us, eh? In other words, the US government uses inflation to shrink its debt.

Wall Street has also been allowed to “create money out of thin air“. And, guess what, us folks on Main Street, USA have also been allowed to create money out of thin air. Think of it this way: since the Federal Reserve has wanted to “print” a lot more money to keep the system afloat, it makes sense that Wall Street and individual homeowners would be encouraged to help “create” the money.

The basic premise to the whole game is this. If one person holds on to a dollar bill all day, then it is only one dollar. But if, instead, that person spends her one dollar first thing in the morning, and then another person spends that same dollar, and then another person, etc………..by the end of the day, if ten people have spent that dollar bill, then the economy would feel the effects of ten new dollars of spending on that day. But the catch is that if the first person keeps the dollar in her pocket then there is zero dollars of spending on that day.

The “speed of money” is a gauge of how fast that dollar bill is moving from hand to hand and being spent.

Foreign countries now own about 25% of US government debt. Since foreign companies kept buying US debt and kept giving us their goods and services, the Federal Reserve has been able to keep interest rates low for us folks here at home. Lots of countries like China and Saudia Arabia were happy to loan us money because it was a safe place to store all of the US dollars they were earning selling us products and oil. In turn, the low interest rates made it easy for Wall Street and for Main Street to borrow money from the banking system.

Money was moving fast and this “money multiplier” effect has kept many here at home fat and happy. Unless you were on a fixed salary and inflation destroyed your buying power. The speed of money is also the speed at which "the rich get richer" and "the poor get poorer".

By using something called "derivatives" and other creative financing schemes, and by making commissions on the speed of money, Wall Street had been able to "create money" as well.

But what happens to the money multiplier party if foreign governments stop buying our debt and Main Street stops borrowing money to buy houses and goods and services? You get an incredibly fast shrinking of the effective money supply.

As the money supply contracts, the “lines of credit” shrink. Soon it becomes very difficult to borrow money and the effective money supply continues to shrink. People are unable to pay back their debt to the banks and then the banks start to fail.

I have read that there is a silent bank run going on. Large investment funds and corporations are very quietly emptying out their bank accounts because they don’t trust the banks to hold their money.

Tier 1 commercial (loan) paper is how many medium and large size businesses finance their day-to-day operations. I have read that the amount of commercial (loan) paper being issued is down 15% from last year and half of that drop occurred within the past few weeks. Very soon, businesses all across the country will be unable to run their businesses as usual.

So the federal government and the Federal Reserve and Wall Street can each, in their own way, create money out of thin air. But how have we the citizens on Main Street been able to create money out of thin air?

During the first five years of this new millenium, the excess cheap credit has allowed speculation in the real estate market. A buying frenzy occurred in real estate and prices shot through the roof. Individuals on Main Street have seen an enormous growth in the value of their homes and, therefore, have been able to borrow more and more money from banks only too eager to lend.

By pulling out cash from their increasingly more “expensive” houses, folks on Main Street have had a new source of cash that didn’t require any more work than filling out loan application forms. Folks on Main Street have helped fuel the growth of credit encouraged by the Federal Reserve and have bought increasingly higher levels of personal debt. They took the equity in their homes and bought other things. Although we all thought that we were some kind of smart investors, really this new found cash from our homes has turned out to be money created out of thin air.

All of these sources of “cheap” cash are what drove the huge real estate boom and construction boom in Pagosa Springs over the first five years of the new millenium.

What is happening today is the exact opposite. The speed of money has slowed way down. It is difficult to borrow money. The “speculators” have left Pagosa Springs. Some investors have left Pagosa Springs. Some young families who need jobs are leaving Pagosa Springs.

As we experience the exact opposite -- when the speed of money slows way down -- our local economy slowly begins to grind to a halt.

This is the purpose of the “bailout” plan being fought over in Washington D.C. Many politicians do not want the “money created out of thin air” party to end. Another name for a very slow speed of money nation-wide is “recession”.

Many of us in this country have become comfortable with an economy kept afloat by “money created out of thin air”. But, like a hot air balloon with no more propane, our local economy and the national economy are dropping from the sky.

Notes from Noe Valley

I pulled out of San Francisco with a U-haul truck and trailer for the last time in June 2006. Made it to Pagosa Springs for good a few days and exactly 1200 miles later.

This is the first time in the San Francisco Bay Area in over two years. Seems like I know every square inch and still have lots of friends. Needless to say, the thing that has changed the most is me. Change is the one constant. Like our San Juan River, it might look like a permanent "thing" but it is always never the same.

I lived much of my years in a southern portion of The City called Noe Valley. In the mid-1800's, a fellow of Mexican descent starting farming the valley. And, yes, his last name was Noe. By the end of World War II, the hills and flats of Noe Valley became populated by modest small houses and blue collar baby boom families. By the 1980's, Noe Valley's housing stock and population had begun to age.

Of course, what I'm going to get to here, eventually, is the parallels between the Noe Valley of San Francisco, California and Pagosa Springs, Colorado. A lot of things in this world, I'm not so good at. But I like to think that I have some expertise in the area of "stop, look and listen".

Sitting in front of a by-the-minute computer terminal on Market Street in the heart of the Castro District -- yes, that Castro District -- I am both pleased to be back in The City and thrilled to be leaving again. In the 1960's, places like the Castro District and the Haight-Ashbury area contained older poorly-maintained victorian buildings with an aging population. The Castro district saw an influx of new money and renovation in the 1970's.

Over the steep hill of Castro Street heading south, Noe Valley's new dawn began in the late 1980's. While the Castro District has always had large quantities of historical victorian buildings to boast, overall, Noe Valley had a more modest, inexpensive post-WWII box-like architectural quality.

In the 1990's, in particular, young new families were looking for a cheaper part of The City to call their own. A place with houses that could be improved as their financial situation matured. A place where other young families would begin to congregate around a commercial hub like 24th Street a few blocks walk away. A place that increasingly enjoyed hip new restaurants, a little night life and the overall feel of an upwardly-mobile young white new generation.

By the beginning of the new millenium, the young upwardly mobiles (remember the term "yuppies") had begun to take over Noe Valley and, increasingly, the forces of economics have driven the older remaining population away. The older fixed-income seniors were unable to afford properly maintaining their older houses, and the new population was more than willing to fix up or tear down and build up modern housing in their place. Increasingly, baby strollers, expensive cars, visitors and expensive houses came to dominate Noe Valley; all in about a fifteen year time frame.

Downtown Pagosa Springs can, perhaps, breathe a sigh of relief because there is no economic engine driving the "X generation", "Y generation", "yuppies" (or whatever they are called now) to take over downtown Pagosa Springs. The forces of "no growth" and "keep Pagosa Pagosa" can, for a brief moment, believe that the "river of change" doesn't apply to our little Town and that, somehow, things can just stay the same.

In our Town, the only way that an influx of young, new families will make Pagosa Springs their new home is if we consciously and intentionally invite them in. Otherwise, they will not be coming.

But, here is the bad news. Young, upwardly mobile families are only one class of "People with Money". Like I said, I'm sitting here in the heart of the San Francisco Castro District. There are a whole lot of "People with Money" walking around and expensive cars driving by but almost no baby strollers.

Without any evidence other than my so-called "stop, look and listen" skills, I am going to make a bold assertion here. The weak hands of older Pagosa residents is getting shaken loose right now. People are loosing jobs. Fixed income seniors are going to find it increasingly difficult to maintain their lifestyle in our little "resort" town, and new young families will find better opportunity elsewhere.

Much to the chagrine of the "keep Pagosa Pagosa" people, that is not the end of the story. There are economic forces that will continue to drive the "weak hands" Pagosa landholders to sell to the stronger hands of a new class of "People with Money". For lack of a better word, the economic forces could be called "gentrification". But it might be more to the point to say that we here in Pagosa Springs have what some "People with Money" want. It is the simple force of economics.
Sometimes those forces cause a place to decay. But in a case like Pagosa Springs, take a look at the entire Colorado Western Slope and you will see what is about to happen here next.

So, this is my big question. If the economic forces of gentrification don't drive new, young families to buy up downtown Pagosa Springs over, say, the next 20 years......then exactly who are my predicted "People with Money" who will buy up Pagosa Springs? That, I think, is a question worth examining by those of us with an interest in the future of downtown.

The second question that is dear to my heart is this: what can we do, now, to attract new young upwardly mobile families and have them be a large part of this new influx of "People with Money"?

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Taking Responsibility

Yesterday, Bill Hudson in the Pagosa Daily Post wrote about being called a “naysayer” by the mayor.

I paused to pick over Bill’s paragraph “The problems we face are not going to be solved in Town Council meetings or in PAWSD board meetings or in BOCC meetings. But we can all play our parts, in our own small ways.” It’s a logical statement and one that many of us know to be true.

Different interest groups or separate boards are not going to fix the bigger picture, “each in small little ways”. The politics of separation and division don’t get us there. The problems are awaiting community-wide leadership, vision and a plan.

As Bill notes, “the whole planet is in a struggle.”

Our Pagosa Springs community is facing an awesome array of challenges: insufficient funds which plague County government, the vacant storefronts downtown, the shifting of the commercial heart of town away from the downtown core to the uptown sprawl, the crumbling Town sewer system, the crumbling water systems, lack of jobs and lack of affordable housing. Opportunity to learn is abundant.

Its fascinating -- how will we learn to work together?

I’m trying to be a writer. I’ve enjoyed writing several stories in the Pagosa Daily Post over the past year. But, there is a book inside of me and I’ve been wanting to get it out for a couple of years now. I’ve never written a book and don’t know how.

A good friend wisely pointed me to the classic “Bird by Bird -- Some Instructions on Writing and Life” by Anne Lamott. The title of the book comes from the author’s childhood. Her father was also an author. Anne Lamott’s ten year old brother had put off for three months a major book report on birds which was now due the next morning. The brother was at the kitchen table with piles of unopened books and in tears over the enormity of the task. The father sat down, put his arm around him and said “Bird by bird, buddy. Just take it bird by bird.”

I love books like this. A story or information that I’m deeply interested in and buried along side of it some operating instructions for life.

Anne Lamott notes that if you are having trouble completing stories as a writer, “it may be that there is nothing at their center about which you care passionately. You need to put yourself at their center; you and what you believe to be true or right. The core, ethical concepts in which you most passionately believe are the language in which you are writing.”

“Telling these truths is your job. You have nothing else to tell us. But needless to say, you can’t tell them in a sentence or a paragraph; the truth doesn’t come out in bumper stickers.”

Further on in the book, Lamott continues with “We are all in danger now and have a new everything to face, and there is no point gathering an audience and demanding its attention unless you have something to say that is important and constructive.”

“The issue now is how to take care of one another. Some of us are interested in any light you might be able to shed on this, and we will pay a great deal extra if you can make us laugh about it.” (Anne Lamott in “Bird by Bird”).

Once upon a time, in a galaxy far, far away, there lived a community of people who worked together for the shared common good. There was a common vision of the best of what their lives could be. There was a vision and leadership to provide for the next generation.

Back here on our planet, for the better part of 5000 years, human beings have been able to operate with a degree of “success” by forming opposing groups of people and destroying the others. It has always been us against them.

In classical Greece, ruling caesars were removed from office by actual assassination. Modern evolution now has us resort to “character assassination” of community leaders that we don’t like.

What if we found out that in July 2008 we could now learn how to empower our leaders? Yes, some of us still think that the solution to every problem is to “throw the bums out”. I’ve tried that approach myself. But self destruction of our own community leadership is not a solution……it is self destruction. Time to learn partnership.

Is it possible to guide and encourage and support our community leaders to build vision and unity? Kind of like shifting from “nay saying” to “way finding”.

My favorite teacher, author and speaker Caroline Myss talks about a higher level of human interaction. “Service through empowering another person changes the situation. Because at this point you have to negotiate power.”

“To be of service to another person, that says,
I’m going to empower you now by telling you that you have gifts that you haven’t touched and I am going to help you develop those gifts….because you were born to develop those gifts. I am going to serve you in that way. And I can see that you don’t have the courage to do that. I am going to mentor you. Because I know how to bring that out in you.’”

“Now, that is an act of service a lot of people simply can’t do. It’s too much for them. Their soul does not yet have the stamina to empower or mentor another person. They still have to do power plays because they still don’t know how to survive in the physical world.” (Caroline Myss; YouTube; “Soul Service”)

“Taking responsibility” means I know that, ultimately, in this democracy within which our small town exists, I am in charge. The buck stops here. I take responsibility.

Not that there is anything special with me. All of us are each, individually, in charge of our Pagosa Springs. Or, at least, those of us that say “I am responsible” are in charge of the future.

The old politics of “us versus them” does not work any more. Notice how since we’ve declared a “war” against terrorism that our world has become less safe? Remember the 1980’s when we declared a war against drugs? How did that work out? How about the war on poverty?

What would it take for the leaders of our community to all sit down and agree on a common vision for the future? What would it take for each of us to declare, personally, that we are each the community leader? Yes, I am talking about you.