Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Friday, January 25, 2008
We are a one-town, small county. We are one community.
Do not let anyone -- especially a "leader" -- ever tell you that we are divided and separate.
What affects the one, affects the whole. Our physical, spiritual and financial futures are intricately entwined. We are one community of the greater Pagosa Springs area.
Do not let anyone -- especially a "leader" -- ever tell you that we are divided and separate.
What affects the one, affects the whole. Our physical, spiritual and financial futures are intricately entwined. We are one community of the greater Pagosa Springs area.
Monday, January 21, 2008
Thursday, January 17, 2008
It's time for the Town Council to get into the driver's seat
Jack Wilshire has been living on Lewis Street since 1980. He originally moved here in 1977 before the “old” City Market came to town. Jack works at the local hardware store and he also works at the local sandwich shop. He is 40-something years old.
Jack works 40 hours a week for $15. an hour at the hardware store and then he works another 35 hours a week at the sandwich shop for $8. an hour. With the way inflation has been driving up the price of everything, Jack can barely make it here. There is a small army of people like Jack in town who work at the restaurants, bars, stores, motels, and coffee shops. Just about all of them have a second job. A third job is not the answer.
Jack is a vital part of my community. He helps me with my building materials and he also serves up my sandwich. We need him here. What are we going to do to help him stay here along with all of the other hourly workers that help us out every day?
The Town Council still has time to get into the drivers seat to grow this Town -- the way that we really want it. Not as the eventual exclusive enclave of the super rich but as a diverse neighborhood. Rich and poor. Young and old, alike.
Recently, the Town Council changed the height limit to reduce a large number of residential lots from three story buildings to two story buildings. The calculations and analysis for this height reduction were, essentially, done on the back of a napkin while the Town quickly attempted to resolve the height controversy over on South 8th Street.
To be fair to Town Councilor Tony Simmons, the new three-story structure behind his house does stick out oddly inconsistent with the neighboring old small houses. The future has just crashed into the past.
To be fair to the typical employee who lives here, the new height restriction guarantees that million dollar houses are all that will get built around that South 8th Street neighborhood. No one is going to build a $500,000. single family two-story house on a 50 foot by 150 foot lot on South 8th Street. But eventually, someone is going to be quite interested in building a whole block of 28-feet-tall two- million-dollar homes down there.
Town Councilor John Middendorf complained that the tiny supply of new multi-family housing being built downtown today is already anything but affordable. But, consider that the $500,000. to $700,000. town homes that can be offered in new multi-family buildings, are a whole lot better than the multi-million dollar second homes that will come later to the South 8th Street area as a direct response to the Town Council’s January 15th action.
Two story houses with white picket fences are no longer affordable to the blue-collar worker. Condos priced at $150,000. can no longer be built. Our nostalgia for cute, little neighborhoods downtown will kick the workforce and their families out of this town.
Pagosa Springs has something in common with Telluride, Breckenridge, Steamboat, and Durango. The process of gentrification -- the conversion of older neighborhoods into expensive newer homes -- is an unstoppable force in desireable places like ours.
So, Town Councilor Tony Simmons just saved the little single family character of South 8th Street. But, for whom?
The Wall Street Journal newspaper (January 19, 2008) carries a page one piece entitled “The New Gentry -- Wealthy folks are colonizing rural America, bringing cash, culture - and controversy”. Connor Dougherty writes “Affluent retirees and other high-income types have descended on these remote areas, creating new demand for amenities like interior design stores, spas and organic markets.”
“Such change can create social tensions, as longtime residents are either driven away because they can no longer afford housing or are forced to adapt to new careers.”
“One indicator of rural gentrification: an increase in residents’ total dividend, interest and rent income. That measurement, tracked by the Commerce Department, is a sign that new residents -- usually retirees -- are living off their investments rather than salaries. (Wall Street Journal)”
But money to buy also comes from active, mobile business people. The cover of this month’s Colorado Biz Magazine is an ode to the growing financial force of the Colorado Western Slope. Towns from Colorado Springs down to Durango are, in part, becoming “an economy based on location-neutral businesses, like the new Hewlett-Packard executives based in Steamboat Springs who live there….well, because they can. Rural, regional airports have stitched the country together even as Internet technology has allowed it to fragment geographically. The result has been a coagulation of wealth in the state‘s pretty spots, usually in those areas seeded first by ski areas. (Allen Best, Colorado Biz magazine, January 2008)”
The people coming in to buy Pagosa Springs up from underneath the locals don’t care if we’ve nurtured our local economy or not; they’ve got their own money.
In Sun Valley, Idaho the billionaires are pushing out the millionaires. In places desired by “the gentry”, there is a pecking order where the new, stronger money pushes out the old, weaker money.
The first concern is for maintaining our Town with young families and for trying to grow the local 18 to 40 year old population (or at least not have them leave). To achieve this, we must create high-density multiple-family dwelling units downtown. This is a job the Town Council could take on -- to grow the Town. The new height ordinance is going to kill off many of the multi-family dwelling units that would have otherwise been built.
One active local builder claims that new residential construction downtown must be sold for about $490. a square foot for a one-story building. A new two-story building must be sold for $360. a square foot and a new three-story building must be sold for about $300. a square foot. (I now have four reliable sources who report similar new construction costs.)
The second concern is for having a Town Council-driven economic growth plan. We need jobs and new businesses here, people.
We need more income in Town. Fortunately, we have vast resources and potential for more tourism, retreat, seminar, and outdoors enthusiast dollars coming into this Town than most people can even imagine.
The Southern Utes have taken financial advantage of their natural resources -- natural gas in their case. Why can’t Pagosa Springs take advantage of its natural resources? The Southern Utes have done so well as to carefully invest in real estate from Las Vegas to Kansas City. Now they are developing the 3,000-unit housing complex in Durango called Three Springs next door to the new hospital. The tribe also owns the water wealth of the almost complete Animas-La Plata Project. (Colorado Biz magazine; Jan. 2008)
The difference is leadership for growth and prosperity.
If our Town Council had the desire, we could similarly tap into our own unique natural resources for the benefit of all Pagosa area residents. Yes, we could be a nationally-known tourist destination! Instead of dragging our feet and protesting new development, let’s take advantage of it -- before someone else moves in to do it for themselves.
A separate topic is that South 8th Street was supposed to be a mixed-use neighborhood with a mix of small shops, multi-family homes and single family homes. It was supposed to be a complete pedestrian-oriented neighborhood along a major traffic route; not a quiet little side street. (Remember the Town Comprehensive Plan?)
With the stroke of a pen (on the back of a napkin) the Town Council turned the future of South 8th Street into two-story single-family houses. It took two years to write the Comprehensive Plan vision. The Comp Plan would allow on one lot, two residential units with a third commercial space like a flower shop. That is not going to get built with the new height limit. Million dollar houses will.
The question is “Who is going to buy these new homes?” That’s easy to answer -- just drive up and down the Colorado West Slope and visit all of the “little” towns 10 and 20 years ahead of us.
What kind of community for tomorrow is the Town Council building with today’s decisions? Let’s think about it. Today.
The kind of neighborhood that Councilor Tony Simmons has fought to save today is a “community” of second-home-owning multi-millionaires tomorrow. As we all know, that is not a “community”.
The Town Council could get into the drivers seat to grow this Town. The Town could plan for a diverse full-time community of the young and the old; the rich and the poor alike.
The future of Pagosa Springs looks like one of three possible options.
Option number one is for this Town to grow in a way that encourages new families and young people to stay here. Our full-time community and local businesses continue to grow. We grow our local economy with an economic plan led by the Town Council. And, yes, there will be lots of tourists and second-home owners.
Option number two is for the downtown to get built up and occupied mostly by multi-millionaires who only live here part time. Outsiders take over this Town and push the long-time locals out.
Option number three is that nothing ever happens and Pagosa Springs stays the same forever. Hint: ain’t gonna happen. We’ve got what the money wants. And it’s coming to get it, whether we are ready or not.
Jack works 40 hours a week for $15. an hour at the hardware store and then he works another 35 hours a week at the sandwich shop for $8. an hour. With the way inflation has been driving up the price of everything, Jack can barely make it here. There is a small army of people like Jack in town who work at the restaurants, bars, stores, motels, and coffee shops. Just about all of them have a second job. A third job is not the answer.
Jack is a vital part of my community. He helps me with my building materials and he also serves up my sandwich. We need him here. What are we going to do to help him stay here along with all of the other hourly workers that help us out every day?
The Town Council still has time to get into the drivers seat to grow this Town -- the way that we really want it. Not as the eventual exclusive enclave of the super rich but as a diverse neighborhood. Rich and poor. Young and old, alike.
Recently, the Town Council changed the height limit to reduce a large number of residential lots from three story buildings to two story buildings. The calculations and analysis for this height reduction were, essentially, done on the back of a napkin while the Town quickly attempted to resolve the height controversy over on South 8th Street.
To be fair to Town Councilor Tony Simmons, the new three-story structure behind his house does stick out oddly inconsistent with the neighboring old small houses. The future has just crashed into the past.
To be fair to the typical employee who lives here, the new height restriction guarantees that million dollar houses are all that will get built around that South 8th Street neighborhood. No one is going to build a $500,000. single family two-story house on a 50 foot by 150 foot lot on South 8th Street. But eventually, someone is going to be quite interested in building a whole block of 28-feet-tall two- million-dollar homes down there.
Town Councilor John Middendorf complained that the tiny supply of new multi-family housing being built downtown today is already anything but affordable. But, consider that the $500,000. to $700,000. town homes that can be offered in new multi-family buildings, are a whole lot better than the multi-million dollar second homes that will come later to the South 8th Street area as a direct response to the Town Council’s January 15th action.
Two story houses with white picket fences are no longer affordable to the blue-collar worker. Condos priced at $150,000. can no longer be built. Our nostalgia for cute, little neighborhoods downtown will kick the workforce and their families out of this town.
Pagosa Springs has something in common with Telluride, Breckenridge, Steamboat, and Durango. The process of gentrification -- the conversion of older neighborhoods into expensive newer homes -- is an unstoppable force in desireable places like ours.
So, Town Councilor Tony Simmons just saved the little single family character of South 8th Street. But, for whom?
The Wall Street Journal newspaper (January 19, 2008) carries a page one piece entitled “The New Gentry -- Wealthy folks are colonizing rural America, bringing cash, culture - and controversy”. Connor Dougherty writes “Affluent retirees and other high-income types have descended on these remote areas, creating new demand for amenities like interior design stores, spas and organic markets.”
“Such change can create social tensions, as longtime residents are either driven away because they can no longer afford housing or are forced to adapt to new careers.”
“One indicator of rural gentrification: an increase in residents’ total dividend, interest and rent income. That measurement, tracked by the Commerce Department, is a sign that new residents -- usually retirees -- are living off their investments rather than salaries. (Wall Street Journal)”
But money to buy also comes from active, mobile business people. The cover of this month’s Colorado Biz Magazine is an ode to the growing financial force of the Colorado Western Slope. Towns from Colorado Springs down to Durango are, in part, becoming “an economy based on location-neutral businesses, like the new Hewlett-Packard executives based in Steamboat Springs who live there….well, because they can. Rural, regional airports have stitched the country together even as Internet technology has allowed it to fragment geographically. The result has been a coagulation of wealth in the state‘s pretty spots, usually in those areas seeded first by ski areas. (Allen Best, Colorado Biz magazine, January 2008)”
The people coming in to buy Pagosa Springs up from underneath the locals don’t care if we’ve nurtured our local economy or not; they’ve got their own money.
In Sun Valley, Idaho the billionaires are pushing out the millionaires. In places desired by “the gentry”, there is a pecking order where the new, stronger money pushes out the old, weaker money.
The first concern is for maintaining our Town with young families and for trying to grow the local 18 to 40 year old population (or at least not have them leave). To achieve this, we must create high-density multiple-family dwelling units downtown. This is a job the Town Council could take on -- to grow the Town. The new height ordinance is going to kill off many of the multi-family dwelling units that would have otherwise been built.
One active local builder claims that new residential construction downtown must be sold for about $490. a square foot for a one-story building. A new two-story building must be sold for $360. a square foot and a new three-story building must be sold for about $300. a square foot. (I now have four reliable sources who report similar new construction costs.)
The second concern is for having a Town Council-driven economic growth plan. We need jobs and new businesses here, people.
We need more income in Town. Fortunately, we have vast resources and potential for more tourism, retreat, seminar, and outdoors enthusiast dollars coming into this Town than most people can even imagine.
The Southern Utes have taken financial advantage of their natural resources -- natural gas in their case. Why can’t Pagosa Springs take advantage of its natural resources? The Southern Utes have done so well as to carefully invest in real estate from Las Vegas to Kansas City. Now they are developing the 3,000-unit housing complex in Durango called Three Springs next door to the new hospital. The tribe also owns the water wealth of the almost complete Animas-La Plata Project. (Colorado Biz magazine; Jan. 2008)
The difference is leadership for growth and prosperity.
If our Town Council had the desire, we could similarly tap into our own unique natural resources for the benefit of all Pagosa area residents. Yes, we could be a nationally-known tourist destination! Instead of dragging our feet and protesting new development, let’s take advantage of it -- before someone else moves in to do it for themselves.
A separate topic is that South 8th Street was supposed to be a mixed-use neighborhood with a mix of small shops, multi-family homes and single family homes. It was supposed to be a complete pedestrian-oriented neighborhood along a major traffic route; not a quiet little side street. (Remember the Town Comprehensive Plan?)
With the stroke of a pen (on the back of a napkin) the Town Council turned the future of South 8th Street into two-story single-family houses. It took two years to write the Comprehensive Plan vision. The Comp Plan would allow on one lot, two residential units with a third commercial space like a flower shop. That is not going to get built with the new height limit. Million dollar houses will.
The question is “Who is going to buy these new homes?” That’s easy to answer -- just drive up and down the Colorado West Slope and visit all of the “little” towns 10 and 20 years ahead of us.
What kind of community for tomorrow is the Town Council building with today’s decisions? Let’s think about it. Today.
The kind of neighborhood that Councilor Tony Simmons has fought to save today is a “community” of second-home-owning multi-millionaires tomorrow. As we all know, that is not a “community”.
The Town Council could get into the drivers seat to grow this Town. The Town could plan for a diverse full-time community of the young and the old; the rich and the poor alike.
The future of Pagosa Springs looks like one of three possible options.
Option number one is for this Town to grow in a way that encourages new families and young people to stay here. Our full-time community and local businesses continue to grow. We grow our local economy with an economic plan led by the Town Council. And, yes, there will be lots of tourists and second-home owners.
Option number two is for the downtown to get built up and occupied mostly by multi-millionaires who only live here part time. Outsiders take over this Town and push the long-time locals out.
Option number three is that nothing ever happens and Pagosa Springs stays the same forever. Hint: ain’t gonna happen. We’ve got what the money wants. And it’s coming to get it, whether we are ready or not.
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Town "Emergency" - the economy is dying
The Town is stuck at a crossroads between the “nostalgia for yesterday” and the need to grow into the vibrant, business-minded realities of tomorrow. The Town is literally stuck. There are forces trying to save the small, one-story character of a quaint little town. And there are forces trying to build the town for the 21st century but only if it is economically feasible. There is a stalemate, and the Town is dying.
All land use planning in the United States starts with two rules. Rule number two is “not in my backyard” with your new development. Rule number one is “give me what I want first”. And so, the Town must decide how to let go of the death-grip on the nostalgia for the past and how to logically grow into the future.
The current Town "emergency" height ordinance is set to expire at the end of January. On January 2nd, the Town Council considered extending by another six months "emergency" ordinance 704 which is a moratorium on building structures over 28 feet in height in residential zoning districts downtown.
The "emergency" ordinance was placed in effect over five months ago after Town Council member Tony Simmons got upset with builder Todd Shelton's 35 foot building going up next door to his house, to hear Shelton explain it. Todd Shelton has mostly completed one 35 foot tall two-unit building and was about to legally build the second one. Shelton reported to the Town Council last week that it was Tony Simmons who managed to convince the Council that there was an outcry of public concern against such 35 foot buildings. Shelton argued that no one has demonstrated that there actually was such an outcry or that the public had any concern what-so-ever.
Let me admit up front that I have failed to discuss this matter with Tony Simmons before press time. I’ve driven by Mr. Simmons’ house and I’ll take the liberty of guessing (at my own peril) how Tony must be feeling about the situation. The Simmons house is cute, smallish and one story. Just like all the old houses in the neighborhood which are cute, smallish and one story.
But this story is not really about Tony Simmons’ cute, smallish house or the other old houses of the neighborhood. I’m writing about a dying economy and about the lack of new development downtown.
Tony Simmons’ house is a product of the last century. Todd Shelton’s duplex is a product of this century. Welcome to the new economy.
At last Tuesday's meeting, Town Councilmembers John Middendorf and Angela Atkinson expressed great concern that it was inappropriate to use an "emergency" ordinance to enact a height limit. No such "emergency" can be demonstrated. Secondly, since the Town has had its six month opportunity to address the "height issue", it is time for the Town to decide the matter once and for all.
A majority of the Town Council agreed to decide the issue at its upcoming Tuesday January 15th meeting.
A survey of three different experienced downtown developers puts the actual cost, today, of planning, permitting and building a structure downtown at about $300. per square foot -- or so they claim. This cost does not include the cost of the land.
From the "man in the street" perspective, all one needs to do is walk downtown to see that there has obviously been a financial disincentive to building anything downtown. Almost nothing has been built in the past five years. Almost nothing is being built now. No one seriously plans to build anything downtown in the foreseeable future.
So, it appears that the actual affect of the "emergency" height ordinance is to ensure that nothing will get built downtown as a matter of Town policy.
According to Sean Thompson, a local architect with projects downtown and in the County, "In this current political environment builders and developers are reluctant to be too vocal about capricious behavior on the part of the town for fear of their project being delayed indefinitely with procedures that come out of an inferior Land Use Development Code (LUDC) document. We are currently trying to amend the LUDC but it has taken almost a year since this process began and the committee is just now seeing the first draft."
Off the top of my head, the newer residential projects downtown consist of the mixed commercial Town Terrace next door to Victoria’s on Pagosa Street. Then there is Chris Smith’s Riverwalk condominums on the south side of town on the river. Bob Hart is bravely in the middle of construction on the river almost across from Town Park. Todd Shelton is wrapping up his two units behind Tony Simmons house.
There is not a whole lot more being built downtown. Nor is it likely that any new projects will be started any time soon.
Todd Shelton says he can build closer to $100. per square foot because he is a “do-it-yourself” kind of a guy. Most people can’t build that cheaply. He is building two units at 2000 square feet each, so that is a total of 4000 square feet. He says that he has $20,000. in impact fees per unit. So that is $440,000. in cost right there. Then he has to pay for the lot; let’s say $39,000. for that.
Maybe he can sell each unit for $250,000. each, maybe a little more. Well, if you do the math, this is not a get-rich-quick scheme. In fact, it doesn’t make financial sense. Too much risk, too little return.
Todd Shelton says that he “is done with the Town”. He won’t be building anything else.
Rumor has it that developer David Brown “is done” and he won’t be building anything.
Are things any better “in the County”?
Pat Alley of Whispering Pines is currently constructing 20 relatively affordable units on the east side of Lake Pagosa. Whispering Pines is the most productive developer in both the Town and the County combined. According to Mr. Alley, “The PAWSD (water) fees for the housing project are $192,203. for 20 small economical units. The county fees were $10,395. and the increase (due to inflation) on our sprinkler system cost is 35% in four months. The new county impact fee would now add another $37,540. to this project. That is $240,000. in fees for a so called affordable housing (project).”
“The investors are from Dallas and the most they may receive is a $150,000. return on sales of $3,200,000. that is less than a 5% return. I convinced them to do this project for the working class here in Pagosa. They had intended on investing more into this community but now have second thoughts because of the attitude of the town and county about growth and a self induced moratorium.”
It seems unlikely that a 5% return would be enough to motivate either the investors or Whispering Pines to build another project of this type any time soon.
Bill Hudson of the PagosaDailyPost.com has just been running a series of articles about how the Pagosa blue-collar worker is an “endangered species” and will need some kind of governmental “endangered worker” act to save them from disappearing from Pagosa all together.
“It is not possible to build a $100,000 single family home on a $40,000 lot. On the other hand, it is very possible to build a four-story apartment for less than $100,000 per apartment, because we can save up to 25 percent per unit by stacking four units on the same lot. In other words, we can still build new housing that is affordable, even in the current market. But this new housing will not reflect the historic, small town character that we hold so dear.”
And so Bill’s five part exploration ends, right on target, at the dilemma that faces us now.
Density -- bigger buildings -- downtown is the only viable way forward. Period.
There is another side of the issue to what Bill Hudson talked about in his five part piece on “Pagosa’s Endangered Species”. It is looking a lot like we are on the verge of losing some of our most talented builders. Three years ago, it might have looked like the builders were coming in from every direction. But now it looks like the exodus may begin.
As the builders give up and leave, there will be less jobs. Less income will mean less revenue for our stores. Less retail revenue means less sales tax dollars for the Town and the County.
There is no such thing as “no growth”. Economies grow and expand or else economies shrink and die. We are currently shrinking.
So, here is what I urge the Town to do on Tuesday January 15th. Restore the height limit to 35 feet. In other words, leave the height limit alone and don’t reduce it. Make it at least 35 feet to the roof mid-span or else you will end up with tall boxes.
Likely, in this shrinking economy, no one is going to begin building anything new even with the 35 foot height limit. But at least the Town will have thrown a bone to the developers in the hope that someone will try.
Next step: the Town needs to get into the drivers seat to make development happen downtown. The alternative is further shrinking in the downtown core, less jobs, less retail revenue, and less sales tax.
No one is expecting any community leadership from the County this year while it gets itself into order. We can only hope that community leadership comes from the Town.
All land use planning in the United States starts with two rules. Rule number two is “not in my backyard” with your new development. Rule number one is “give me what I want first”. And so, the Town must decide how to let go of the death-grip on the nostalgia for the past and how to logically grow into the future.
The current Town "emergency" height ordinance is set to expire at the end of January. On January 2nd, the Town Council considered extending by another six months "emergency" ordinance 704 which is a moratorium on building structures over 28 feet in height in residential zoning districts downtown.
The "emergency" ordinance was placed in effect over five months ago after Town Council member Tony Simmons got upset with builder Todd Shelton's 35 foot building going up next door to his house, to hear Shelton explain it. Todd Shelton has mostly completed one 35 foot tall two-unit building and was about to legally build the second one. Shelton reported to the Town Council last week that it was Tony Simmons who managed to convince the Council that there was an outcry of public concern against such 35 foot buildings. Shelton argued that no one has demonstrated that there actually was such an outcry or that the public had any concern what-so-ever.
Let me admit up front that I have failed to discuss this matter with Tony Simmons before press time. I’ve driven by Mr. Simmons’ house and I’ll take the liberty of guessing (at my own peril) how Tony must be feeling about the situation. The Simmons house is cute, smallish and one story. Just like all the old houses in the neighborhood which are cute, smallish and one story.
But this story is not really about Tony Simmons’ cute, smallish house or the other old houses of the neighborhood. I’m writing about a dying economy and about the lack of new development downtown.
Tony Simmons’ house is a product of the last century. Todd Shelton’s duplex is a product of this century. Welcome to the new economy.
At last Tuesday's meeting, Town Councilmembers John Middendorf and Angela Atkinson expressed great concern that it was inappropriate to use an "emergency" ordinance to enact a height limit. No such "emergency" can be demonstrated. Secondly, since the Town has had its six month opportunity to address the "height issue", it is time for the Town to decide the matter once and for all.
A majority of the Town Council agreed to decide the issue at its upcoming Tuesday January 15th meeting.
A survey of three different experienced downtown developers puts the actual cost, today, of planning, permitting and building a structure downtown at about $300. per square foot -- or so they claim. This cost does not include the cost of the land.
From the "man in the street" perspective, all one needs to do is walk downtown to see that there has obviously been a financial disincentive to building anything downtown. Almost nothing has been built in the past five years. Almost nothing is being built now. No one seriously plans to build anything downtown in the foreseeable future.
So, it appears that the actual affect of the "emergency" height ordinance is to ensure that nothing will get built downtown as a matter of Town policy.
According to Sean Thompson, a local architect with projects downtown and in the County, "In this current political environment builders and developers are reluctant to be too vocal about capricious behavior on the part of the town for fear of their project being delayed indefinitely with procedures that come out of an inferior Land Use Development Code (LUDC) document. We are currently trying to amend the LUDC but it has taken almost a year since this process began and the committee is just now seeing the first draft."
Off the top of my head, the newer residential projects downtown consist of the mixed commercial Town Terrace next door to Victoria’s on Pagosa Street. Then there is Chris Smith’s Riverwalk condominums on the south side of town on the river. Bob Hart is bravely in the middle of construction on the river almost across from Town Park. Todd Shelton is wrapping up his two units behind Tony Simmons house.
There is not a whole lot more being built downtown. Nor is it likely that any new projects will be started any time soon.
Todd Shelton says he can build closer to $100. per square foot because he is a “do-it-yourself” kind of a guy. Most people can’t build that cheaply. He is building two units at 2000 square feet each, so that is a total of 4000 square feet. He says that he has $20,000. in impact fees per unit. So that is $440,000. in cost right there. Then he has to pay for the lot; let’s say $39,000. for that.
Maybe he can sell each unit for $250,000. each, maybe a little more. Well, if you do the math, this is not a get-rich-quick scheme. In fact, it doesn’t make financial sense. Too much risk, too little return.
Todd Shelton says that he “is done with the Town”. He won’t be building anything else.
Rumor has it that developer David Brown “is done” and he won’t be building anything.
Are things any better “in the County”?
Pat Alley of Whispering Pines is currently constructing 20 relatively affordable units on the east side of Lake Pagosa. Whispering Pines is the most productive developer in both the Town and the County combined. According to Mr. Alley, “The PAWSD (water) fees for the housing project are $192,203. for 20 small economical units. The county fees were $10,395. and the increase (due to inflation) on our sprinkler system cost is 35% in four months. The new county impact fee would now add another $37,540. to this project. That is $240,000. in fees for a so called affordable housing (project).”
“The investors are from Dallas and the most they may receive is a $150,000. return on sales of $3,200,000. that is less than a 5% return. I convinced them to do this project for the working class here in Pagosa. They had intended on investing more into this community but now have second thoughts because of the attitude of the town and county about growth and a self induced moratorium.”
It seems unlikely that a 5% return would be enough to motivate either the investors or Whispering Pines to build another project of this type any time soon.
Bill Hudson of the PagosaDailyPost.com has just been running a series of articles about how the Pagosa blue-collar worker is an “endangered species” and will need some kind of governmental “endangered worker” act to save them from disappearing from Pagosa all together.
“It is not possible to build a $100,000 single family home on a $40,000 lot. On the other hand, it is very possible to build a four-story apartment for less than $100,000 per apartment, because we can save up to 25 percent per unit by stacking four units on the same lot. In other words, we can still build new housing that is affordable, even in the current market. But this new housing will not reflect the historic, small town character that we hold so dear.”
And so Bill’s five part exploration ends, right on target, at the dilemma that faces us now.
Density -- bigger buildings -- downtown is the only viable way forward. Period.
There is another side of the issue to what Bill Hudson talked about in his five part piece on “Pagosa’s Endangered Species”. It is looking a lot like we are on the verge of losing some of our most talented builders. Three years ago, it might have looked like the builders were coming in from every direction. But now it looks like the exodus may begin.
As the builders give up and leave, there will be less jobs. Less income will mean less revenue for our stores. Less retail revenue means less sales tax dollars for the Town and the County.
There is no such thing as “no growth”. Economies grow and expand or else economies shrink and die. We are currently shrinking.
So, here is what I urge the Town to do on Tuesday January 15th. Restore the height limit to 35 feet. In other words, leave the height limit alone and don’t reduce it. Make it at least 35 feet to the roof mid-span or else you will end up with tall boxes.
Likely, in this shrinking economy, no one is going to begin building anything new even with the 35 foot height limit. But at least the Town will have thrown a bone to the developers in the hope that someone will try.
Next step: the Town needs to get into the drivers seat to make development happen downtown. The alternative is further shrinking in the downtown core, less jobs, less retail revenue, and less sales tax.
No one is expecting any community leadership from the County this year while it gets itself into order. We can only hope that community leadership comes from the Town.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
