Choice and Consequence

“Would you rather earn $50,000. a year while other people make $25,000., or would you rather earn $100,000. a year while other people get $250,000.”

According to experiments in behavioral economics, “the majority of people select the first option.”

“Amazingly, most people said that they would prefer to” make less money than to make more money while being behind somebody else. Studies show that most people would rather forgo $50,000. in order to alleviate the feeling of “regret” that comes with not earning $250,000. “Essentially they were willing to pay $50,000. for regret therapy.”

“Regret falls under a psychological effect known as loss aversion. Research shows that before we risk an investment, we need to feel assured that the potential gain is twice what the possible loss might be because a loss feels twice as bad as a gain feels. That‘s weird and irrational, but it‘s the way it is.” (Michael Shermer; LA Times 1/13/08)

Now what could that study have to do with the town of Pagosa Springs and the “welcome mat” we never put out for someone like David J. Brown and Bootjack Management? Hmmmm.

David Brown came to town and tried to turn Pagosa Springs into an income-producing, desirable destination. Aren’t you glad that we avoided the “regret” of having to participate in his success?

“This community is at a moment where it is really going to decide what it is going to be going forward.” So spoke Henry Beers to the Town in May of last year. “Places that endure, think in long time frames.”

“Not changing, unfortunately, isn’t an option.”

“Transformation is taking what has been, in order to imagine what can be, and then acting.” “That’s very different than just plain old change.”

“For any living organism or any vital community -- vitality requires transformation. And, it takes courage.”

“And when you put a lid on that, or when you say that you’re not interested in that -- you are basically setting a timer on your own demise.”

Mr. Beers pointed out that “A lot of time and energy is spent trying to build consensus. But, you can’t get crowds to lead. You just need a few people with their hair on fire.” Bold leadership is required.

“You need to be idea led and public opinion informed. But if you let public opinion wag the dog, the town will never be better than the worst opinion. It will be the lowest common denominator.”

Henry Beers’ Communication Arts is a design firm that helps towns fix problems with their land use planning, marketing and vision for the future. Services include environmental graphic design, branding and identity, and placemaking within retail, resort, recreation, entertainment, sports, hospitality, urban and food environments.

But what they do is only successful if it is propelled by a real desire for change.

The fundamental cancer rotting inside our town is the illusion that the course we are on will lead to a viable future. Somehow we can grow a little but really sort of just stay the same.

The problem in this town is the “leadership” has spent much of our time leading people away from what we don’t want. “We don’t want David Brown spending millions of dollars to upgrade the downtown.” “We don’t want any buildings over two stories.” “We don’t want to create a new downtown with lots of new jobs and new sales tax revenue.”

“We don’t want change. Just keep Pagosa, Pagosa.”

Was it so terrible that David Brown began to tear down old buildings to prepare for new buildings? Even with the loss of those demolished spaces, we continue to see more commercial space go vacant.

The policy intent of the Town and public opinion can be visibly understood simply by walking from the bottom of Putt Hill to the bridge past Kip’s. Just take a walk and see how the largest real estate boom, this lifetime, was not taken advantage of by our Town. Our downtown is in chaos because the “leadership” continues to run the agenda of “I don’t want”.

We have just begun to feel the contractions of a shrinking economy. Businesses from uptown to downtown are feeling the pinch of a poor, underdeveloped economy. In the past two years, significant numbers of commercial spaces downtown have gone vacant. The great question is, which businesses along Highway 160 will close during the next 12 months? How about the next 24 months?

Uptown businesses like La Tazza, Pagosa Brewing Company and Higher Grounds Coffee represent some of the best of the recent business growth for the future. What do these businesses all have in common? They illustrate the ongoing flight of investment away from the downtown core.

In the early 1970’s, the downtown core of Boulder, Colorado was on the verge of total collapse. Shopping malls outside of the core began attracting more and more of the consumer dollar.

Henry Beers and Communication Arts was hired in Boulder to come up with a plan. That plan became the huge social and financial downtown success of Pearl Street Mall. Boulder enjoys a thriving downtown today because someone decided to make a huge change.

The surrounding Boulder business owners needed to vote for an assessment district to approve the project. Pearl Street Mall in Boulder was barely approved by only two votes twenty-five years ago. Mr. Beers claims that it would not be approved today because we are too stuck on consensus-driven politics.

Henry Beers talks about the Big Hairy Audacious Goal.

Most people don’t really know what they want and what would really be good for them.

A great leader is able to mobilize the people who don’t agree. Right now, in Town, we have representatives of the downtown voters. But we do not have leaders.

The real problem is that the average citizen, you and me, expects or assumes that the elected officials should naturally also be the leaders. But that is not how it works.

Sometimes elected politicians are great leaders but usually not. Sometimes great leaders are politicians but often times not.

Our elected officials are not going to lead us into a future of growth and prosperity. They are busy representing “the people”, building compromise and managing the day to day business of government.

The leadership is going to come from somewhere else.

Let’s applaud the Town Council for creating an Economic Development Coordinator position. But a “coordinator” won’t be able to do what the Town Council won’t do.

First, we need to concentrate on the Central Business District. We need to grow (in a big way) the 400, 300 and 200 blocks of Main Street and Hot Springs Blvd. all the way down to Town Hall. All we need to worry about right now is those six blocks. We’ll deal with Lewis Street, South 8th Street and the rest, later.

The existing buildings in Town do not point us towards a viable future. The existing Town is not enough of a vivid coherent anything to inform a brilliant future. The absurdity of “historic preservation” will keep us from building the Big Hairy Audacious Goal. Sure, there’s maybe ten buildings in this town that need to be preserved. But not all of Main Street.

As part of the package of what Henry Beers would recommend for our Town is that we go for as much height and density downtown as we have the guts for. Why? So that we can create a true sense of place downtown, a real destination place for tourists, a desirable place inviting in new members for our community, and new sources of income for all of us.

If we don’t have something audacious, if it is all small scale, then don’t expect anyone to get excited about it. We need three stories on both sides of Main Street; maybe even four stories, occasionally, stepped back from the street.

Density creates a sense of place. Density keeps the cost down per square foot. Density is what makes downtown different than Pagosa Lakes.

We need an architecture that speaks to a sense of centrality, focus, density and life. If everything we build new downtown is done in response to what is already here, then we are not going to end up with much.

The downtown business owners are hanging on by their fingernails economically and they won’t grow towards a future of excellence until they have a future vision worth building.

Near the end of the Henry Beers presentation, town manager Mark Garcia asked the following. “I want to get specific on what you want to do for us, Henry. We are trying to figure out if politically we can make this happen. I would like to see how you feel that you could provide something for us that Council could use.”

To which Beers replied, “As I sit here right now, I’m not sure that I’m convinced that the things that need to be in place are in place that would enable us to be successful.”

“Rather than saying what am I going to do next for you -- I would suggest that you (the Town) take today and you get together amongst yourselves and see what you can come up with. And then lets get together again. I’m going to put it right at your feet.”

“I’d rather that one of you take the leadership on this because sooner or later it is going to have to be.”

And, so, Henry Beers left town and has not yet been invited back.

The time for true growth and renewal in our downtown has not yet come. The downward economic spiral and implosion of the commercial heart of downtown has only just begun.

The pain of the darkest hour is not yet upon us.

The Town Council is mostly informed by the philosophy of “I don’t want”. Some members of the Town Council, staff and public opinion must truly believe that their restricted vision for downtown will actually get built even though dozens of local developers keep telling them otherwise. As long as the Town Council old guard continues to be elected then they must be right. Right?

When the time comes and people are ready to grow up and move into prosperity, we’ll get this party started. But not yet.

Maybe, three years from now, the agony of doing nothing will overtake the fear of transformation in our community and the true leadership will find a welcome mat instead of a litany of “I don’t wants”.

David Brown has been such a leader. (Maybe he will still be.) But until the pain of economic implosion becomes greater than the naysaying “regret” of watching someone like David Brown turn downtown into a huge financial success, downtown will continue to crumble.

Choice and consequence -- it’s the only game in town. You and I have made specific choices about the future of our town resulting in visible consequences. Is it logical for us to continue making the same choices while desperately hoping for different consequences?